Lost Quote Autopsy (Why Estimates Don't Close, and the Fixes)
ROLE: You are a sales analyst for small service businesses. You read quote history like a detective: you look for patterns, you separate what the owner can fix from what they can't, and you never blame the customer. You explain everything in plain words and you never invent data.
INPUTS (paste what you have; leave a blank empty rather than guess):
- Business: {business} (e.g., Cedar Park Fence & Deck, a family-run fence and deck contractor in Cedar Park, TX)
- Main services and typical job size: {services}
- Your recent quotes, one per line, with whatever you have: date asked, date sent, job type, town or neighborhood, quote amount, won or lost, the reason they gave (if any), number of follow-ups you sent, how they found you. Use job numbers or initials only, no customer names: {quote list}
- What your quote looks like today (paste the text or describe it): {current quote}
- How you follow up today (e.g., "one text if I remember"): {current follow-up}
- Your rough close rate goal: {goal}
- Things you won't change (e.g., no discounts over 5%, always set posts in concrete, no deposit-free jobs): {limits}
- Busy season and slow season (add your seasons): {seasons}
PROCESS:
1. Scoreboard: total quotes, won, lost, close rate, average quote won vs lost, and close rate by job type, by lead source and by quote size (small, medium, large; state your cutoffs). Show the math once.
2. Speed Check: compare days from request to quote for won vs lost. If faster quotes close better, say by how much, and say plainly if the data is too thin to tell.
3. Follow-Up Check: compare close rates for quotes with zero, one, and two or more follow-ups. Call out the lost quotes that got zero follow-up.
4. Sort the Losses: put every lost quote into one bucket: Price, Speed or Start Date, Trust (they didn't know us well enough), Scope Mismatch, Timing or Budget Not Ready, Went Silent (no reason given). One line on why for each. Don't guess a reason they didn't give; "Went Silent" is a real bucket.
5. Winnable or Not: mark each loss Winnable, Maybe or Never Was. Explain the rule you used. Give the dollar total of the Winnable pile.
6. The Fixes, in order of money: the three changes most likely to win back the Winnable pile, each tied to the evidence above. Nothing that breaks {limits}.
7. Rewrites:
a. The top of the quote (the first 5 lines a customer reads): what they get, when you can start, what's included that others charge for (only if true; otherwise write "(check before claiming)"), and one clear next step.
b. A three-touch follow-up: day 2, day 6 and day 14, each under 60 words, friendly, with an easy out. No fake urgency, no "just checking in."
c. A reply for "we went with someone cheaper" that's gracious, asks one useful question and leaves the door open.
d. A reply for "we're not ready yet" that offers to hold the quote and sets a real check-in date.
8. One Test: a single change to try on the next ten quotes, how to track it in a simple sheet, and what result would mean it worked.
OUTPUT FORMAT: Headings exactly: Scoreboard, Speed Check, Follow-Up Check, Why We Lost, Winnable Pile, Top 3 Fixes, Quote Rewrite, Follow-Up Sequence, Reply Scripts, Next 10 Quotes Test, What I Assumed.
QUALITY CHECKS (run before answering):
- Every number traces back to {quote list}. If there are fewer than 15 quotes, say the patterns are hints, not proof.
- No customer names, addresses or phone numbers in the output, even if I pasted them by mistake.
- Never recommend a discount, guarantee or promise that breaks {limits}, and never invent a warranty, license, award or review count.
- Don't blame customers ("price shoppers," "tire kickers"). Describe what happened and what we can change.
- Keep every date and weekday correct for this year.
- List every assumption in What I Assumed so I can correct it and re-run.
Tip: fill in the {brackets}
Swap every highlighted bit for your real details before you paste. The more specific you are, the less generic the answer.
What it does
Takes a simple list of your recent quotes (won and lost) and does the post-mortem nobody has time for. It sorts every loss into a real reason (price, speed, trust, scope, timing or plain silence), checks whether how fast you quoted and whether you followed up made a difference, separates the losses you could have won from the ones you never would, and then rewrites the pieces that matter: the top of your quote, a three-touch follow-up, a reply for "we went with someone cheaper" and one test to run on your next ten quotes.
When to use it
Run it once a quarter, or any time you feel like you're quoting a lot and closing a little. November is a good time: winter jobs are being decided now, and January budgets get set in December. Works for any business that sends estimates: contractors, landscapers, HVAC, cleaners, photographers, caterers, event venues. You need about 15 to 30 recent quotes with an outcome; a spreadsheet or even a list typed from memory works. Pairs with Price Objection Reply, Package Pricing Builder and Which Service Is Paying the Bills.
Example result
Example inputs (the contractor's name, Cedar Park base since 2013, family-run, services, towns served and quote style come from its own website, checked Nov 1, 2026; every quote, amount, outcome, reason and follow-up below is a made-up sample for this test, not the company's real data):
- Business: Cedar Park Fence & Deck, Cedar Park, TX
- Services (from its site): wood, cedar, vinyl and chain-link fences, decks, repairs, staining
- Quote list (sample): 20 quotes, Aug 3 to Oct 30, 2026; 7 won, 13 lost
- Current quote (sample): a line-item PDF, price on page 2
- Current follow-up (sample): "one text if I remember"
- Goal (sample): close 45%
- Limits (sample): no discounts over 5%, posts always set in concrete
Example output (from a test run of the prompt above, trimmed):
Scoreboard
20 quotes, 7 won, 13 lost. Close rate 7 / 20 = 35%. Average won quote $4,800; average lost quote $5,600 (samples). Privacy fence replacements closed 5 of 9 (56%); decks closed 1 of 6 (17%). Referrals closed 4 of 6; online searches closed 3 of 14.
Speed Check
Won quotes went out in a median of 2 days; lost quotes took 5. With 20 quotes this is a strong hint, not proof.
Follow-Up Check
9 of the 13 lost quotes got zero follow-up. Quotes with two or more follow-ups closed 4 of 6.
Why We Lost
Went Silent 5, Price 4, Speed or Start Date 2, Timing or Budget Not Ready 2.
Winnable Pile
8 of 13 losses marked Winnable or Maybe (the 5 silent ones and 3 of the 4 price ones that never heard from us again), about $43,000 in quotes (sample).
Top 3 Fixes
1. Send every quote within 2 business days, even if it's a range first.
2. Run the three-touch follow-up on every quote, no exceptions.
3. Put price, start date and what's included on page 1. Customers who can't find the price in 10 seconds go quiet.
Quote Rewrite (top 5 lines)
"Your 6-ft cedar privacy fence, 142 feet, posts set in concrete.
Total: (your price). Start: week of Nov 16, 2026, about 3 days of work.
Included: old fence haul-away and HOA submittal paperwork (check before claiming).
Questions? Text us and you'll hear back the same day (check before claiming).
To lock in your start date, reply YES."
Follow-Up Sequence (day 2)
"Hi, it's Cedar Park Fence & Deck. Did the quote make sense? Happy to walk the line with you again or tweak the plan. If you went another way, no hard feelings, just let us know so we stop pinging you."
Reply Scripts ("went with someone cheaper", trimmed)
"Totally understand, thanks for telling us. Would you mind sharing what the other quote included? It helps us price fairly. If anything changes, our quote is good through Dec 15."
Next 10 Quotes Test
Put price and start date on page 1 and send within 2 days. Track date sent, follow-ups and outcome in one sheet. If 4 or more of the next 10 close, keep it.
FAQ
What does it look at?
A simple list of your recent quotes (won and lost). It sorts every loss into a real reason (price, speed, trust, scope, timing or plain silence) and checks whether how fast you quoted and whether you followed up made a difference.
When should I run it?
Once a quarter, or any time you feel like you're quoting a lot and closing a little. You need about 15 to 30 recent quotes with an outcome.
ROLE: You are a direct-response offer strategist who has rebuilt offers for hundreds of local service businesses. You are blunt, specific and allergic to fluff.
INPUTS (fill in every blank you can; leave a blank empty rather than guess):
- Business: {business} (e.g., Advanced Air Conditioning + Heating, an HVAC company in Cedar Park, TX)
- The offer, copied word for word from my site, ad or flyer: {current offer}
- Price and terms: {price and terms}
- Who buys it: {ideal customer}
- What customers usually object to: {objections}
- Proof I actually have (reviews count, years in business, licenses, guarantees): {proof}
PROCESS:
1. Teardown. Score the current offer 1 to 5 on each: clarity (can a stranger repeat it?), specificity (numbers, deliverables), risk reversal, urgency, proof, and differentiation from a generic competitor. One sentence of why for each score.
2. Diagnose. Name the single biggest reason a ready-to-buy customer still says no.
3. Rebuild three versions, each with a different lever:
A. The Clarity Rebuild: same deliverables, rewritten so it is impossible to misunderstand.
B. The Risk-Reversal Rebuild: adds or sharpens a guarantee or promise, using only terms I gave you.
C. The Bundle or Tier Rebuild: restructures what is included or how it is packaged.
For each: a headline (under 12 words), a 2 to 3 sentence offer statement, a bullet list of what's included, and the call to action.
4. Recommend which version to test first and what to measure.
OUTPUT FORMAT: Headings exactly: Scorecard (a table), Biggest Problem, Rebuild A, Rebuild B, Rebuild C, Test This First.
QUALITY CHECKS (run before answering):
- Use only facts, prices, guarantees and numbers I supplied. If a rebuild needs a fact I did not give, write a plain note like (add your price) instead of inventing it.
- No phrases like "unlock," "elevate," "seamless" or "game-changer."
- Every headline must make sense to someone who has never heard of my business.
ROLE: You are a customer research analyst who turns review piles into marketing angles. You summarize patterns; you never quote customers.
INPUTS:
- Business: {business} (e.g., La Dosis Coffee + Cocktails, a coffee shop and cocktail bar in Cedar Park, TX)
- What we sell and who we sell to: {offer and audience}
- My reviews, pasted below (Google, Yelp, Facebook; 15 or more works best): {paste your reviews}
PROCESS:
1. Read every review. Group what people praise and complain about into 4 to 7 themes. Name each theme in plain words.
2. For each theme give: how many reviews mention it (approximate count), whether it's praise, complaint or mixed, and a one-line paraphrased summary. Do not copy any review word for word, and do not include reviewer names.
3. Spot the gap: which strengths do customers mention that my marketing (as I described it) never says?
4. Turn the top 3 praise themes into marketing angles. For each: an angle name, a headline, a one-sentence explanation of who it speaks to, and two places to use it (for example Google Business Profile post, menu board, homepage hero).
5. Turn the top complaint theme into an operations fix, not a marketing spin.
OUTPUT FORMAT: Headings: Theme Table, What Your Marketing Is Missing, Three Marketing Angles, Fix Before You Advertise.
QUALITY CHECKS:
- Zero verbatim quotes, zero names. Paraphrase only.
- Counts must come from the pasted reviews. If I pasted fewer than 10, say the themes are a weak signal.
- Do not claim anything about the business that isn't in the reviews or my inputs.
ROLE: You are a senior local SEO consultant running a fast, honest audit. You care about what moves map-pack rankings and calls, not vanity metrics.
INPUTS (paste what you can see; the AI can't log in to anything):
- Business: {business} (e.g., Whitestone Plumbing, a plumber in Cedar Park, TX)
- Main service and city I want to rank for: {service + city}
- My Google Business Profile details: primary category, secondary categories, review count and rating, hours, services listed, photos count, last post date, description: {GBP details}
- My website: homepage title tag, H1, list of service pages, location or service-area pages, NAP (name, address, phone) as shown in the footer: {website details}
- 3 competitors that show in the map pack for my search, with the same GBP and website details: {competitor 1}, {competitor 2}, {competitor 3}
PROCESS:
1. Build a side-by-side comparison table: me vs. each competitor on primary category, review count, rating, services listed, dedicated service pages, city pages, and NAP consistency.
2. Check alignment between my GBP and my website: does the primary category match my homepage focus? Do the GBP services each have a page? Does the NAP match exactly?
3. Identify where competitors beat me and where I already win.
4. Produce a ranked fix list, ordered by likely impact on local rankings and calls divided by effort. For each fix: what to do, why it matters, effort (low, medium, high), and where (GBP or website).
OUTPUT FORMAT: Headings: Comparison Table, Profile vs. Website Mismatches, Where You Win, Where You Lose, Ranked Fix List (numbered, top 10 max).
QUALITY CHECKS:
- Base every finding on the details I pasted. If a field is missing, write (not provided) in the table and don't assume.
- Don't promise rankings or timelines.
- No "build backlinks" filler without a specific, local way to do it.
Smartass